A current fad in both the consumer and business media is to beat up on terrestrial radio for losing listeners. And as if that weren't enough, to point out that the listeners who are staying aren't listening as long as they had in the past. There are a number of problems with these dark forecasts and dire warnings. Not the least of which is that if you look at the simple numbers, the current health of terrestrial radio is not only extremely strong, but isn't getting any worse.
A current fad in both the consumer and business media is to beat up on terrestrial radio for losing listeners. And as if that weren't enough, to point out that the listeners who are staying aren't listening as long as they had in the past. There are a number of problems with these dark forecasts and dire warnings. Not the least of which is that if you look at the simple numbers, the current health of terrestrial radio is not only extremely strong, but isn't getting any worse.
To wit: There are more then 600 million radios in the United States. According to Arbitron, in an average week, 93.7% of every person over the age of 12 in the United States listens to the radio at least once. This means that over 140 million people over the age of 12 will listen to the radio this week. These overwhelming numbers underscore the potent and continuing strength of terrestrial radio that digital scaremongers like to ignore: Reach.
Such a massive user base is in no danger of dying in the foreseeable future, especially when you consider overall usage has leveled off at around 94% of the population. In the short term we aren’t seeing any significant trend downward. If we aren't losing listeners, then why has the press trumpeted the death of radio so loudly and so wrongly?
Well, one reason is that there has been a long-term decline in radio usage over the past seven years: From roughly 95% to 94% of the population. But even this decline is minimal compared to radio’s massive reach and, ultimately, misleading. You see, the seven year decline in radio usage is actually slower than the growth rate of the United States population. The result is a simple truth that flies in the face of every radio doom sayer out there: The total number of people using radio continues to increase every year.
That's some mighty strong evidence that radio is in a much healthier position than the pessimistic forecasts of the media would have you believe. Still, we would be remiss if we didn't point out one grain of truth in the warnings of radio critics: While terrestrial radio is gaining listeners every year, the bad news is that people are listening to the radio less. This is the fact that has initiated most of the negative predictions for radio, and it is a legitimate and worrisome trend: The average time spent listening to radio has decreased almost two hours a week over the past seven years.
But it is important to note that even this downward trend has appeared to have leveled off: That said, it is important to consider the impact of more choices and new audio media on the future of radio. While radio is actually stronger today than it was a year ago, it would be foolish to think that we will completely avoid any more audience erosion. The simple fact, as cable television has taught us with its impact on terrestrial television, is that more choices lead to a more segmented usage pattern.
Note that for radio this is not simply audio-specific choices either. IPods certainly have an effect on listening, but there is also the significant effect that media like video gaming and Internet surfing are having.
It will only become more eompetitive as listeners flock to mobilen and and video becomes less tethered to TV boxes, and wifi creates substantial opportunities for both Internet radio and streaming subscription services. As television learned years ago, media does not evolve into fewer choices. The choices will expand; the demands on consumers’ attention will increase.
This isn't just a radio problem, by the way. This is a troubling proposition for all of old media. The media landscape is changing. Traditional outlets with huge market share are finding that digital distribution outlets are providing new and creative ways to command attention
As television taught us with the advent of cable, losing market share to new and different media or distribution may not be something that can be countered at all. The answer is difficult, but unavoidable: Adapt to a changing environment. The good news is that radio is coming from a real position of strength. Even significant erosion will leave it strong.
While it is important for terrestrial radio to accept the big picture reality of what is happening with media, it is equally important that terrestrial radio take nothing for granted and continue to fight for its listeners. Be daring. Break convention. Be foreground. Fight for every consumer.
Terrestrial radio doesn't need to bemoan the nature of new media. All it needs to do is roll up its sleeves and fight for each listener with every ounce of creativity, passion, and show business it has. And radio is doing just that.
Despite the fact that media competition has never been more fierce, that new audio options are being presented to the consumer in ever-increasing numbers, and that a constant barrage of press is telling the consumer how bad terrestrial radio is and that it is dying—despite all these things—terrestrial radio continues to add more users each year. This is not the sign of a medium in trouble. It is the sign of a medium at the peak of health.
